All Posts Tagged With: "inflation"

(KR) Core Consumer Price Index Inflation Still Tame

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% in February, up from a 0.4% increase in both January and December. While that sounds bad, year over year it is up just 2.1%. Looking a little bit deeper, the problem is mostly with energy, and to a lesser extent, food prices.


31Mar2011 | | 0 comments | Continued

(KR) Consumer Price Index Increases but Still Tame

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% in January, The same pace as in December (after December was revised down to 0.4% from 0.5%). The CPI increased by just 0.1% in November, so the past two months are a bit of an acceleration. While that sounds bad, year over year it is up...

18Feb2011 | | 0 comments | Continued

(WMT) U.S. Personal Income Up – Spending Flat

This morning’s report on Personal Income and Spending was a classic good news and bad news report.

First, the bad news: Personal Spending, or what is known as Personal Consumption Expenditures or PCE, was virtually unchanged (up $4.0 billion, which does not even round to...

28May2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(BAC) Producer Price Index Shows Producer Prices Still Tame $$

The Producer Price Index for finished goods fell 0.1% in April on a headline basis. The consensus was looking for an increase of 0.1%. Year-over-year prices are up 5.5%, mostly due to a rebound in energy costs, but that is down from a 6.0% year-over-year increase in March. The decline...

23May2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(F) U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Fell by 0.1% in April – What Inflation?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% in April on a headline basis, and was unchanged once one strips out food and energy. For anyone who is listening out there, let me make this crystal clear: inflation is NOT a problem right now.

On a year-over-year basis, the headline...

19May2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(LPX) U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits Rise

We got some good news and some bad news today. The good news is that both Housing Starts and Building Permits rose in March. The bad news is that both housing starts and building permits rose in March.

It is good news, since residential investment is historically one of the...

18Apr2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(FCX) U.S. Industrial Production Inches Higher

In March, total Industrial Production rose by 0.1%. While that is a slowdown from recent growth rates, and far below consensus expectations of 0.7% growth, if one looks beyond the headline number, it is actually a fairly positive report.

For starters, each of the previous three...

15Apr2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(XOM) Inflation “Chicken Littles” Have Been Wrong

The Consumer Price Index rose just 0.1% in March, after being unchanged in February and rising 0.2% in January. Over the last year, it is up 2.3%.

If one strips out food and energy costs, prices were unchanged on the month, after rising just 0.1% in February and actually falling...

14Apr2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(PBR) U.S. Consumer Price Index Remains Tame

We got more evidence today that inflation is not a serious concern. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in February after five straight months when it had increased by only 0.2% per month. Overall consumer prices are...

18Mar2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(FNM) Federal Reserve Stays On Hold With Interest Rates – In-Depth

As expected, the Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at its meeting today. Below, we present statements from the current meeting along with statements from the late January meeting, with my commentary and interpretation (translation?) interspersed on a paragraph...

18Mar2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(FCX) Producer Price Index Falls More Than Expected

In February, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.6%, a far bigger decline than the 0.2% drop expected by the consensus of forecasts. However, all of the decline came from a bigger-than-expected fall in Energy prices. The core index, which strips out the volatile food and energy...

17Mar2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(C) Obama to Nominate Yellen to Be Federal Reserve Vice Chairman

Bloomberg is reporting today that Janet Yellen is President Obama’s pick to succeed Donald Kohn as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. Yellen is currently the President...

12Mar2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(TM) U.S. Trade Deficit Falls, However…

The nation’s trade deficit fell in January to $37.3 billion from a downwardly revised $39.9 billion in December. It did so, however, for the “wrong reason.”

We saw a bigger decline in imports, which dropped by $3.1 billion or 1.69% to $180.0 billion, than we did in exports,...

11Mar2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(WMT) Automatic Data Processing Sees 20,000 Job Losses

Automatic Data Processing, the largest payroll processing firm in the nation, reported this morning that the nation lost 20,000 private sector jobs in February, which is the smallest number by its count since the recession began all the way back in December of 2007. This is a relatively tasty appetizer...

3Mar2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(DHI) Total U.S. Construction Spending Declines

In January, total construction spending declined by 0.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 884.1 billion. That is 9.3% below the 974.3 billion rate of a year ago. However, residential construction spending actually rose by 1.1% on the month to an annual rate of $269.2 billion, although it is...

1Mar2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(BAC) U.S. Treasury Sells Warrants of Four Banks

The U.S. Treasury Department is planning to auction off its warrant positions in four banks, which it received as part of its investments in banks through the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) during the height of the financial crisis. The government is taking this step to free the...

23Feb2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(FNM) Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Exit Strategy

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was scheduled to testify on Capitol Hill this morning, but because the Capitol was frozen (by the weather, not just by filibusters) the hearing was cancelled. However, he did release his prepared testimony.

In general, in his remarks about monetary policy, Bernanke...

12Feb2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(GS) The Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged

The Federal Reserve decided to leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged at a range of 0 to 25 basis points, just like everyone expected them to do. Below are the current statement and the December statement, along with my analysis of the changes and commentary interspersed.


27Jan2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(WFC) Federal Reserve Meeting Results in Focus for Wednesday

The Federal Reserve is meeting today and tomorrow, and tomorrow afternoon they will announce if they are going to change the Fed funds rate from its current range of 0 to 25 basis points. As the graphs below (from

26Jan2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(CS) Case Schiller Indexes Show Home Prices Edge Up

In November, housing prices increased by 0.24% on a seasonally adjusted basis for both the Case Schiller (CS) Composite 10 (CS-10) and Composite 20 (CS-20) city indexes. The CS indexes are considered the gold standard of housing price indexes, and track actual repeat sales, and are thus not influenced...

26Jan2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(WY) Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Index Rises

The Institute for Supply Management’s survey of manufacturing purchasing managers was stronger than expected in December, coming in at 55.9 — up from 53.6 in November and better than the consensus expectations for a rise to 54.3. The ISM index is constructed from 10 sub-indexes and is set...

5Jan2010 | | 0 comments | Continued

(FNM) No Rate Change at the Federal Reserve

The Fed just wrapped up its last FOMC meeting of the year, and as expected it did not change the fed funds rate. The policy statement was substantially the same as the one they released after the last meeting in early November. While the Fed Funds rate is not going up anytime...

16Dec2009 | | 0 comments | Continued

(EQR) Consumer Price Index Rose Moderately

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% in November, following increases of 0.3% in October and 0.2% in September. Relative to a year ago, prices are up 1.8%. That is a big jump from last month, but that...

16Dec2009 | | 0 comments | Continued

(MO) Energy Heats Up Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) came in at a much-higher-than-expected 1.8% increase in November relative to October. In October, the PPI was up only 0.3%. The consensus expectations were for a rise of 0.8%.

The rise was for the most part due to a big jump in energy costs. Finished energy...

15Dec2009 | | 0 comments | Continued