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Stocks to Remain Tentative$$
The favorable labor market and housing reports on Thursday notwithstanding, it is becoming clear that we will have to wait at least a few more weeks before expecting a trend shift in the nation’s economic fortunes. Add to this questions about China’s growth outlook,...
Bullish Sentiment Rebounds; Bearish Sentiment Stays Unusually High – AAII Sentiment Survey
June 16, 2011
Bullish sentiment rebounded in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism that stock prices will rise over the next six months rose 4.6 percentage points to 29.0%. Despite the improvement, this is the ninth consecutive week that bullish sentiment is below...
Key Fundamental Market Questions
Early May is beset by a “Flight to Safety” trade. That may be hard to see from the modest losses of the S&P 500 the past couple days. However, as I write this article the riskier/smaller cap stocks of the Russell 2000 are down 3% since Monday morning. So quite likely...
Federal Reserve Statement Decoded
The Federal Reserve just finished its meeting, and as was universally expected, it kept the Fed Funds rate at the 0 to 0.25% range where it has been since December 2008. The real action since then has been in the policy statement and the changes in the language of it.
Below,...
Overvaluation Figures Reaching Critical Levels – ValuEngine.com Universe
VALUATION WATCH: Our models find that overvaluation is approaching critical levels. Overvalued stocks now make up almost 62% of our universe and 30% of the universe is calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. All Sectors are calculated to be overvalued
Valuation...
Latest Poor Case-Shiller Housing Data Bolsters Predictions of Double Dip
New housing data from Case-Shiller released today shows that prices have declined yet again and are now at levels barely above their April 2009 bottom. Housing has now declined to a point that is roughly equal to its 2003 level according to the Case-Shiller composite indices....
AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Is Rangebound – April 14, 2011
Bullish sentiment slipped 1.4 percentage points to 42.2% in the latest AAII sentiment survey. Optimism that stock prices will rise over the next months stayed within a two percentage point range for the third consecutive week. The historical average is 39%.
Neutral...
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey: Job Openings Jump
In February, the country gained a net of 194,000 jobs, and in March we gained 216,000. However that is a very small fraction of the total number of jobs that were actually created. It subtracts out the number of jobs that were also destroyed in the month. In any economic environment,...
Does Nintendo Have Another Hit on Its Hands?
by Ryan Cole, Investment U Research
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
With its new 3DS portable gaming system, Nintendo is again changing the face of portable entertainment. But is it enough to keep the company ahead of its many challengers? Let’s take a...
Federal Reserve Beige Book Summary
The Beige Book is a compilation of mostly anecdotal evidence from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts about the state of the economy. This month’s edition was just released.
Generally I would describe the report as being upbeat, but not exuberant. Slow and steady progress...
April 7, 2011 – Bullish Sentiment at a 7-Week High – AAII Sentiment Survey
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, improved 1.8 percentage points to 43.6% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. This was the third consecutive weekly increase and it puts optimism at a seven-week high. The historical average...
Investment & Unemployment – Pre & Post 1990
Recently John Taylor, the Economics Professor at Stanford and the author of the Taylor Rule which is often used in monetary policy, caused a bit of a dust up in the Economics blogging community with the following graph showing a very tight correlation between the percentage...
March 31, 2011 – Bullish Sentiment Improved – AAII Sentiment Survey
Bullish sentiment improved 4.1 percentage points to 41.8% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. This is the first time optimism that stock prices will rise over the next six months has been above its historical average of 39% since February 17, 2011.
Neutral sentiment,...
Mar 29: Consumer Confidence Fall – Economic Highlights
The Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 63.4 (1985=100) in March after increasing...
Overvaluation Data from our Latest ValuEngine Valuation Watch
The ValuEngine Valuation Model tracks more than 5000 US equities, ADRs, and foreign stock which trade on US exchanges. The model calculates a level of mispricing or valuation percentage for each equity based on what the stock should be worth if the market were totally rational...
Volatility – Investors Split About Short-Term Outlook for Stocks – AAII Sentiment Survey
Bullish sentiment slipped 0.8 percentage points to 36.0% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism that stock prices will rise over the next six months is at its lowest level since September 2, 2010. The historical average is 39%.
Neutral sentiment, expectations...
Bullish Sentiment Below 50% for Third Time in 4 Weeks – AAII Sentiment Survey
Bullish sentiment declined 2.8 percentage points to 46.6% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. This is the third time in four weeks that optimism has been below 50%. Nonetheless, bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, was above...
Feb 10: U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise
10Feb2011 | vitalstocks | 0 comments | Continued
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
Bullish sentiment declined 2.1 percentage points to 49.4% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism that stock prices will rise over the next six months was above its historical average of 39% for the 23rd consecutive week. This is the second longest such streak since...
U.S. Employment Report in Analysis in Depth – Part 1
The economy added a total of 36,000 jobs in January. That is far below consensus expectations for a gain of 148,000. The small increase is particularly disappointing relative to the numbers put out on Wednesday by ADP that showed a gain of 187,000 private sector jobs.
Government...
Feb 2: Crude Inventories – Economic Highlights
Crude inventories are expected today at 10:30 AM EST. For the week ending January...
Dec 30: Pending Home Sales – Economic Highlights
Pending Home Sales increased 3.5% to 92.2, against expectationsof a 1.5%...
Bullish Sentiment Dips, But Still at High Levels – 30 December 2010 – AAII Sentiment Survey
Bullish sentiment fell in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey, but still remains at high levels. The percentage of individual investors expecting stocks to rise over the next six months fell 11.7 percentage points to 51.6%. This is the 17th consecutive week that bullish sentiment...
Dec 23: Initial Claims Fall – Economic Highlights
Initial Claims decreased to 420,000, for the week ending 12/18, against the expected...
Dec 22: GDP Rises 2.6% – Economic Highlights
GDP Final Q3 Estimates show GDP increased by 2.6%, lower than the expected 3.0% increase,...
Dec 22: U.S. Existing Home Sales – Economic Highlights
Existing Home Sales increased to a 4.68 million annual pace, up 5.6%, lower than the...
Why Home Prices Won’t Rebound in 2011
by Alexander Green, Investment U’s Chief Investment Strategist
Dec 16 – Bullish Sentiment Above Average for 15th Week – AAII Sentiment Survey
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stocks prices will rise over the next six months, stayed above its historical average for the 15th consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism registered 50.2%, a 2.8 percentage-point dip from the previous week.
Neutral...
Stealth Stocks Weekly Update with Dennis Slothower for December 06, 2010
Summary of Recommendations
We should see a minor pullback this week that should provide a better entry point by early next week.
Market Commentary
Stocks ended the day mixed after President Barack Obama said he was willing to compromise with Republicans...
Dec 1: ISM Manufacturing Index – Economic Highlights
The ISM Manufacturing Index decreased to 56.6 in November, following an...