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	<title>Stock Blog Hub &#187; prieur</title>
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		<title>More US dollar woes ahead</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/17/more-us-dollar-woes-ahead/15455</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/17/more-us-dollar-woes-ahead/15455#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Sep 2009 17:58:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=15455</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[“The Fed and the Obama administration seem to be pursuing policies that are dollar-negative, and they give no hint of letting up,” said John Mauldin (Thoughts from the Frontline). I share this view and alluded to this in July (see “US dollar about to pop“) when I pointed out that the devaluation of the greenback was a likely policy tool to stimulate the US economy. The combination of low interest rates and quantitative easing has made the US dollar an attractive currency for funding carry-trade transactions (i.e. selling low-yielding currencies to finance the purchase of higher-yielding currencies) and spells more downside, at least until the Fed starts withdrawing from its very loose monetary policy. As investors started assuming more risk since March, the US Dollar Index headed lower, hitting a ]]></description>
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		<title>Goldman’s seven big questions about the economy</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/16/goldman%e2%80%99s-seven-big-questions-about-the-economy/15282</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/16/goldman%e2%80%99s-seven-big-questions-about-the-economy/15282#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Sep 2009 16:42:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=15282</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A recent Global Economics Weekly report from Jim O’Neil and the team at Goldman Sachs Global Economics highlights the answers to seven key questions that, according to them, should provide an indication of whether the improvement in the global economy and performance of world financial markets can be sustained. 1. Will leading indicators, as highlighted by our own GLI, continue to improve? Will leading economic indicators continue to improve? We capture a wide variety of global data through our global leading indicator (GLI) and the GLI continues to show strong upward momentum. The GLI should lead the economy by a few months and we therefore are still optimistic about the coming months. As a result we have upgraded our economic forecasts for global GDP growth to 4% driven by improved ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/16/goldman%e2%80%99s-seven-big-questions-about-the-economy/15282/feed</wfw:commentRss>
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		<title>Q &amp; A with Gabelli: The strong will get stronger</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/09/q-a-with-gabelli-the-strong-will-get-stronger/14683</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/09/q-a-with-gabelli-the-strong-will-get-stronger/14683#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Sep 2009 21:59:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=14683</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[An upshot of the financial crisis could be that investors go back to basics. In the case of equities, the means “plain old stock-picking” as Mario Gabelli of Gabelli Asset Management describes it. The paragraphs below are an excerpt of a recent interview Hedgeweek had with Gabelli. GFM: Will the US be the first country to lead the way out of the crisis? How do you assess the administration’s actions up to now? MG: Economic stimulus is co-ordinated, global and powerful. The US economy represents 24 per cent of nominal world GDP, and is about 60 per cent greater than the faster-growing China, Russia, India, and Brazil combined. However, we have our challenges. Within the US, the consumer is about 70 per cent of our economy and has been in ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/09/q-a-with-gabelli-the-strong-will-get-stronger/14683/feed</wfw:commentRss>
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		<title>Serious credit crunch remains, and it will until labor market turns</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/09/serious-credit-crunch-remains-and-it-will-until-labor-market-turns/14682</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/09/serious-credit-crunch-remains-and-it-will-until-labor-market-turns/14682#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Sep 2009 21:58:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=14682</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This post is a guest contribution by Rebecca Wilder*, author of the of the News N Economics blog. In July, the Kansas City Fed reported &#8211; they measure the Kansas City Financial Stress Index (KCFSI), which is an composite index of 11 financial variables that reflects stress in the financial system &#8211; that the financial system is much improved since late last year, however, financial strain remains above the previous peak on October 1998 (Russian default). What does this imply about credit flow right now? It’s anemic; except for revolving home equity lines of credit, credit extended across all loan types is just a few %-points higher than in January 2008 (nearing two years ago), and falling. Remarkably, the Federal Reserve Bank (see H.8 Tables here) reports that the U.S. ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/09/serious-credit-crunch-remains-and-it-will-until-labor-market-turns/14682/feed</wfw:commentRss>
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		<title>Gross: Staying on “Course” to a New Normal</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/08/gross-staying-on-%e2%80%9ccourse%e2%80%9d-to-a-new-normal/14552</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/08/gross-staying-on-%e2%80%9ccourse%e2%80%9d-to-a-new-normal/14552#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Sep 2009 00:32:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=14552</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Bill Gross, co-founder and co-CIO of PIMCO, is to my mind one of the shrewdest money men around. His monthly newsletter, this month entitled “On the “Course” to a New Normal”, therefore always makes for thought-provoking reading. He concludes the newsletter as follows: “The investment implications of this New Normal evolution cannot easily be modeled econometrically, quantitatively, or statistically. The applicable word in New Normal is, of course, “new.” The successful investor during this transition will be one with common sense and importantly the powers of intuition, observation, and the willingness to accept uncertain outcomes. As of now, Pimco observes that the highest probabilities favor the following strategic conclusions: 1. Global policy rates will remain low for extended periods of time. 2. The extent and duration of quantitative easing, term ]]></description>
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		<title>David Rosenberg: Mr Market has a full tummy</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/04/david-rosenberg-mr-market-has-a-full-tummy/14436</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/04/david-rosenberg-mr-market-has-a-full-tummy/14436#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Sep 2009 23:45:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=14436</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The stock market assessment below comes from highly regarded David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist of Gluskin Sheff &#38; Associates. We may well be in an entirely new phase right now. For months, the equity market had this uncanny ability to rally on any good news, as the psychology took hold that less-negative data was a positive (like having your golf score go up but at a slower rate). Any adverse data that caused a retracement from March to August was treated as a buying opportunity. But having gone from pricing in -2.5% real GDP growth at the lows to +4.0% now, it looks like Mr. Market is becoming a little more discerning in terms of interpreting the economic data. Even before yesterday’s [Tuesday] selloff, the equity market was no ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/04/david-rosenberg-mr-market-has-a-full-tummy/14436/feed</wfw:commentRss>
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		<title>Chinese Shanghai Index Has Had Four Consecutive Down-Weeks</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/01/chinese-shanghai-index-has-had-four-consecutive-down-weeks/14019</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/01/chinese-shanghai-index-has-had-four-consecutive-down-weeks/14019#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2009 17:24:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=14019</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As mentioned in yesterday’s edition of “Words from the Wise“, the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index has now recorded four consecutive down-weeks. The Index witnessed another massive sell-off this morning, declining by a further 6.7% to take its total loss since the peak of August 4 to 23.2%. The losses happened on concerns of large Chinese share issuance and slowing bank lending. The banking regulator has already instructed lenders to raise reserves to 150% of their non-performing loans by the end of this year &#8211; up from 134.8% at the end of June, and the central bank has increased money-market rates to drain liquidity. I have written a fair bit over the past two weeks about the overbought level of most global stock markets and also how China &#8211; a leading ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/09/01/chinese-shanghai-index-has-had-four-consecutive-down-weeks/14019/feed</wfw:commentRss>
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		<title>Stages of Secular Bear Markets</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/28/stages-of-secular-bear-markets/13759</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/28/stages-of-secular-bear-markets/13759#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Aug 2009 16:12:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=13759</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The debate rages on as to whether global stocks markets have turned the corner and are in the early stages of a new secular bull market, or whether we are experiencing a secondary bear market rally (or cyclical bull phase) within a primary bear market. Although I am not a big proponent of averaging data across multi-year cycles, an analysis of the various stages of a typical secular bear market by Teun Draaisma and the strategy team of Morgan Stanley Europe nevertheless provides food for thought. The chart below shows what a typical secular bear market looks like based on the average of the past 19 major bear markets around the globe. Considering the aggregate data, the team summarized their findings as follows: “Each involved a peak-to-trough decline of at ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/28/stages-of-secular-bear-markets/13759/feed</wfw:commentRss>
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		<title>The rhyming of history – Bloomberg and the RFC</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/28/the-rhyming-of-history-%e2%80%93-bloomberg-and-the-rfc/13758</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/28/the-rhyming-of-history-%e2%80%93-bloomberg-and-the-rfc/13758#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Aug 2009 16:11:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=13758</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This post is a guest contribution by Paul Kasriel* of The Northern Trust Company. On November 7, 2008, Bloomberg LP sued the Federal Reserve Board under terms of the Freedom of Information Act to obtain the names of borrowers of funds from the Federal Reserve as well as lists of the collateral posted by the borrowers. On August 25, 2009, a U.S. District judge ruled in favor of Bloomberg, ordering the Federal Reserve Board to turn over to Bloomberg the requested information within five days. At this writing, the Fed has yet to comply and has yet made a decision to appeal the ruling. The Fed has been reluctant to reveal the names of its borrowers allegedly out of a concern that such a revelation could have an adverse competitive ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/28/the-rhyming-of-history-%e2%80%93-bloomberg-and-the-rfc/13758/feed</wfw:commentRss>
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		<title>RGE: Impact of China on financial markets</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/27/rge-impact-of-china-on-financial-markets/13574</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/27/rge-impact-of-china-on-financial-markets/13574#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Aug 2009 19:48:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=13574</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Nouriel Roubini’s RGE Monitor has just published a report examining China’s direct and indirect influences on global asset markets, and particularly equity, commodity and forex markets. Although the full report is only available to RGE’s subscribers, the abridged version nevertheless provides useful insight as reported in the paragraphs below. Chinese equities The Shanghai composite index has fallen almost 20% from its August 4 peak, putting it within the traditional definition of a bear market. Thus far this year, however, the index has risen over 50%, and it has surged even more since its low in late 2008. Yet Chinese equities remain vulnerable given the liquidity outlook and the challenges of using relatively blunt tools to guide asset markets. Correlations between Chinese and global equities (especially emerging market equities) have increased ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/27/rge-impact-of-china-on-financial-markets/13574/feed</wfw:commentRss>
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		<title>Exit strategy of central banks vs stock market strategy</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/22/exit-strategy-of-central-banks-vs-stock-market-strategy/13169</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/22/exit-strategy-of-central-banks-vs-stock-market-strategy/13169#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 22 Aug 2009 20:22:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=13169</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[“The end game for this bullish phase [on stock markets] needs to be considered well before the event. While the timing is largely guesswork at this stage, the usual causes are not. Bull markets are usually assassinated by tighter monetary policy,” said David Fuller (Fullermoney) from across the pond. Exiting an accommodative policy setting prematurely can have dire consequences. A change in stance derailed the recovery in the late 1930s and led to another leg of the depression, as highlighted yesterday in a short report by BCA Reseach. “By mid-1936, the Federal Reserve lifted bank reserve requirements in an attempt to soak up liquidity and prevent speculation from returning to Wall Street. However, the banking system was still too fragile and in need of capital. Consequently, both narrow and broad ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/22/exit-strategy-of-central-banks-vs-stock-market-strategy/13169/feed</wfw:commentRss>
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		<title>The misunderstanding of “debt-fueled consumption”</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/22/the-misunderstanding-of-%e2%80%9cdebt-fueled-consumption%e2%80%9d/13167</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/22/the-misunderstanding-of-%e2%80%9cdebt-fueled-consumption%e2%80%9d/13167#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 22 Aug 2009 20:21:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=13167</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This post is a guest contribution by Rebecca Wilder*, author of the of the News N Economics blog. Today I plan to rant just a bit about consumption because I was reading Yves Smith’s article today, and she referred to “debt-fueled consumption” &#8211; the now pejorative phrase that just rolls off the tongue. She says: “no where does the article [referenced WSJ article in her post on the consumption share] acknowledge that the consumption level was unsustainable and debt fueled.” And this is where I get just slightly irked, because it seems to me that the phrase “debt-fueled consumption” strikes the following chord: every American household was loading up on home equity debt just to buy big ticket items like Hummers and large sofa sets with cup-holders galore from Jordan’s ]]></description>
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		<title>Is US hyperinflation a clear and present danger?</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/21/is-us-hyperinflation-a-clear-and-present-danger/13039</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/21/is-us-hyperinflation-a-clear-and-present-danger/13039#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Aug 2009 17:15:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=13039</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This post is a guest contribution by Paul Kasriel* of The Northern Trust Company. We hear a lot of concern that the Fed’s mushroomed balance sheet over the past two years is setting the stage for a 1970s style inflation here. So long as we have a fiat (a.k.a. Chrysler?) monetary standard, the threat of hyperinflation always lurks. But is the stage currently being set for such an eventuality? I do not think so. Chart 1 shows the behavior of changes in the M2 money supply over the past 50 years on a year-over-year basis. After the Lehman crisis in the summer of 2008, M2 growth accelerated sharply. By January 2009, the year-over-year growth in M2 reached 10.1%. Although not quite matching the 13-1/2% M2 growth often reached in the ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/21/is-us-hyperinflation-a-clear-and-present-danger/13039/feed</wfw:commentRss>
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		<title>GDP – 2Q 2009 signals turn in the making</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/20/gdp-%e2%80%93-2q-2009-signals-turn-in-the-making/12847</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/20/gdp-%e2%80%93-2q-2009-signals-turn-in-the-making/12847#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Aug 2009 17:55:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=12847</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Cees Bruggemans, Chief Economist FNB First the bad news. GDP declined 2% year-on-year in 1H2009, and will probably average -1.5% for the full year. The good news is that the 1Q2009 was by far the worst statistical quarter (-6.4% quarterly annualised), while the real output damage was done in 4Q2008. The 2Q2009 still showed a 3% quarterly annualized decline in GDP but when excluding agriculture the decline was only 1.9% for the remaining 97% of the economy. This profile starts to equal America’s, down 6.4% in 1Q2009 and down 1% in 2Q2009. If we lag the Anglo-Saxons, we certainly lag them not by much even if Asia (and France and Germany) lead us by a fair nose (recovering from 2Q2009) while Australia seems to have escaped recession entirely (at ]]></description>
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		<title>Stock markets disconnected from economy</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/15/stock-markets-disconnected-from-economy/12628</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/15/stock-markets-disconnected-from-economy/12628#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 16 Aug 2009 00:35:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=12628</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I yesterday published a short post on Chinese equities and said: “… it looks if more downside is in store for the Shanghai Composite Index and it would not come as a surprise if lower Chinese equities serve as the catalyst for a well-deserved pullback in global stock markets.” With the MSCI World Index, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the major US indices coming off the boil yesterday, China may already have started leading world markets lower. On a number of occasions recently I have asserted that the stock market has become disconnected from the economy. Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and co-CIO of Pimco, yesterday shared this view in an interview with CNBC. He said: “The stock market has gotten way ahead of the reality on the ground.” Arguing that ]]></description>
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		<title>Weekly Review &#8211; Risky assets last week again marched higher</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/09/weekly-review-risky-assets-last-week-again-marched-higher/12208</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/09/weekly-review-risky-assets-last-week-again-marched-higher/12208#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 09 Aug 2009 19:35:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=12208</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Risky assets last week again marched higher to the tune of economic data supporting the argument of a global economic recovery. A realization among investors that the economic transition from recession to recovery was gaining momentum resulted in many global stock markets and commodities scaling fresh peaks for the year. Source: Steve Breen The S&#38;P 500 Index closed the week above the psychological 1,000 level, marking its highest level since November and capping four consecutive weeks of gains. And more upside lies ahead, said Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs’ market strategist, who expects the Index to reach the 1,100 point by year end. (Is this a contrary indicator coming from a permabull?) Many commodities such as crude oil, copper, aluminum, nickel, lead and zinc hit their highest levels of the ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/09/weekly-review-risky-assets-last-week-again-marched-higher/12208/feed</wfw:commentRss>
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		<title>S&amp;P economic sectors tell bullish tale</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/06/sp-economic-sectors-tell-bullish-tale/12037</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/08/06/sp-economic-sectors-tell-bullish-tale/12037#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Aug 2009 17:58:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=12037</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Many global stock market indices yesterday recorded fresh highs for the year, spurred on by better-than-expected economic and earnings reports, and a fair bit of momentum buying from latecomers to the rally that commenced five months ago. Notably, the ISM Manufacturing Index recorded its seventh straight gain in June. While the reading of 48.9 is still below 50 &#8211; indicating ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector &#8211; the data point provided encouragement. As far as the US markets are concerned, the S&#38;P 500 Index breached the psychological mark of 1,000 for the first time since November and the Nasdaq Composite Index reached the roundophobia 2,000 level not seen since October. All the economic sectors of the S&#38;P 500 Index posted gains, confirming a pattern of the cyclical sectors like materials, ]]></description>
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		<title>Jeremy Grantham: Boring fair price!</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/07/28/jeremy-grantham-boring-fair-price/11476</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/07/28/jeremy-grantham-boring-fair-price/11476#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Jul 2009 04:13:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=11476</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jeremy Grantham has become a familiar and very popular face on this site. For those treasuring his insight, wisdom and prescient calls, the co-founder and chairman of Boston-based GMO has just published the July edition of his quarterly newsletter, entitled Boring Fair Price. Grantham’s 2Q 2009 letter includes the topics “Boring Fair Price” (or, “Waiting for Markets to be Silly Again”) and “Running Out of Resources”, which looks at slower economic growth in light of the recent financial crisis and dwindling resources. Grantham starts the newsletter with the following paragraph: “A year is certainly a long time in markets, and so is a quarter. A year ago, equities globally &#8211; and everything else for that matter &#8211; were very overpriced, particularly if they were risky. A quarter ago, in mid-March, ]]></description>
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		<title>Technical talk: Be cognizant of seasonal trends</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/07/27/technical-talk-be-cognizant-of-seasonal-trends/11362</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/07/27/technical-talk-be-cognizant-of-seasonal-trends/11362#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Jul 2009 17:53:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=11362</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The comments below were provided by Kevin Lane of Fusion IQ. As can be seen from the weekly S&#38;P 500 chart, the Index finally closed above resistance (green line) and its intermediate-term downtrend line (red line). The significance of this is that on numerous occasions prices were repelled at these levels, suggesting there was still some overhead supply. However the ability of the S&#38;P 500 to move above these levels now suggests that large overhead supply is no longer present and prices could rise as buying demand outstrips supply. The only negative associated with the rally thus far is the declining volume (participation); however, we attribute a good portion of the decline to the typical seasonal summer slowdown in trading activity. With the current rally breaking out to new post-low ]]></description>
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		<title>(PMI) Is the yield curve indicating better tidings?</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/07/21/pmi-is-the-yield-curve-indicating-better-tidings/10970</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/07/21/pmi-is-the-yield-curve-indicating-better-tidings/10970#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Jul 2009 20:13:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Surety & Title Insurance]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=10970</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[While the deflation/inflation debate rages on, the jump in US government bond yield (and stronger commodities and weaker US dollar) seems to indicate that deflationary pressures are moderating. The chart of the US 10-year Treasury Note yield shows a clear uptrend since the end of last year, with the yield also now trading above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages. Source: StockCharts.com The graph below shows the relatively flat yield curve (red line) immediately prior to the first rate cut in September 2007. As indicated by the black line, the yield curve has steepened dramatically since as monetary policy kept shorter maturities at low levels while longer maturities have been in a rising trend. Source: StockCharts.com A steeper yield curve typically heralds better tidings for economic growth, although concerns ]]></description>
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		<title>Pinpointing the recovery</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/07/21/pinpointing-the-recovery/10966</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/07/21/pinpointing-the-recovery/10966#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Jul 2009 20:13:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=10966</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Cees Bruggemans At what point does GDP (the value of all goods and services produced in the economy, excluding inflation) stop dropping, ending recession? When does activity start rising again, heralding recovery? Recession endings and recovery starts depend on what the level of GDP is doing. After spending, output, employment and profits have dropped considerably during recession, the new recovery commences from a level below a year ago. Most economists prefer to refer to quarterly annualized change in GDP. This is the actual change in GDP for the quarter, scaled up to an annual change (assuming this pace is maintained for four quarters). If that quarterly number is down, we are still in recession. Only when the change turns positive do we enter recovery. How far before the whole ]]></description>
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		<title>(TUR) Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (June 29 – July 5, 2009)</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/07/05/tur-words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-june-29-%e2%80%93-july-5-2009/9387</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/07/05/tur-words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-june-29-%e2%80%93-july-5-2009/9387#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2009 03:02:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=9387</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[“Words from the Wise” this week again comes to you in a shortened format as I am still on the road in Europe and do not have access to my normal research resources. Although only brief commentary is provided, a full dose of excerpts from interesting news items and quotes from market commentators is included. The holiday-shortened week saw pundits pondering the depth of the economic rabbit hole as the curtain closed on the second quarter. As investors vacillated, most financial markets were characterized by a roller-coaster ride. Friday’s worse-than-expected US jobs data left no doubt that the economy was in recession. Given the economic malaise, it is safe to say that there have probably been better fourth of July celebrations than this weekend’s … Source:Dave Granlund The past week’s ]]></description>
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		<title>Barron’s Confidence Index points to bottoming of equities</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/07/03/barron%e2%80%99s-confidence-index-points-to-bottoming-of-equities/9381</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/07/03/barron%e2%80%99s-confidence-index-points-to-bottoming-of-equities/9381#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2009 00:48:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=9381</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As often stated in my weekly “Words from the Wise” reviews, a confidence indicator worth monitoring is the Barron’s Confidence Index. This Index is calculated by dividing the average yield on high-grade bonds by the average yield on intermediate-grade bonds. The discrepancy between the yields is indicative of investor confidence. There has been a solid improvement in the ratio since its all-time low in December, showing that bond investors are growing more confident and have started opting for more speculative bonds over high-grade bonds. Source: Plexus Asset Management (based on data from I-Net Bridge) Not surprisingly, a strong historical relationship exists between the Barron’s Confidence Index and the S&#38;P 500’s 12-month rate of change. Source: Plexus Asset Management (based on data from I-Net Bridge) The improvement in the Barron’s indicator ]]></description>
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		<title>(IP) The recession in historical context</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/06/18/ip-the-recession-in-historical-context/8542</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/06/18/ip-the-recession-in-historical-context/8542#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2009 23:41:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Consumer Goods]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=8542</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How does the current economic and financial downturn match up to past contractions? In an attempt to present matters in historical context, Paul Swartz of the Council on Foreign Relations recently published a chart book showing that the current economic environment has been more severe than a typical recession. He specifically highlights the following four conclusions: • Financial markets have dramatically improved, but from an extremely low base. Rather than pricing in disaster, they anticipate tough times ahead. For example, the charts on the spread for AAA and BAA bonds show the credit market moving from unprecedented panic to a level of fear that is merely in keeping with the worst experiences since 1945. • Real economy indicators show signs of stabilization. See in particular the charts on manufacturing sentiment, ]]></description>
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		<title>(PIN) Ups and downs on financial markets were plentiful during the past week</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/06/07/pin-ups-and-downs-on-financial-markets-were-plentiful-during-the-past-week/8003</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/06/07/pin-ups-and-downs-on-financial-markets-were-plentiful-during-the-past-week/8003#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Jun 2009 20:10:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=8003</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ups and downs on financial markets were plentiful during the past week, but investor sentiment, on balance, brightened on the back of constructive financial and economic data &#8211; capped by a better-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report on Friday. “It appears that the global economy has finally found the ripcord,” said Rebecca Wilder (News N Economics) in her weekly review of global economic reports. “The global economic reports are becoming saturated with signs of forming a bottom. Auto sales in Japan and the US are improving somewhat; exports are dangling in the double-digit loss rates; and GDP really couldn’t get much worse (the inventory cycle alone will create some growth). Finally, money growth rates are slowing, perhaps an indication that policymakers feel that the worst is behind us,” she commented. Source: Scott ]]></description>
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		<title>(EWH) Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (May 25 – 31, 2009)</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/06/03/ewh-words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-may-25-%e2%80%93-31-2009-2/7779</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/06/03/ewh-words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-may-25-%e2%80%93-31-2009-2/7779#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2009 22:57:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=7779</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Government bonds dominated action on financial markets during the past holiday-shortened week, as angst about inflation and massive issuance propelled yields to six-month highs in the US, Europe and Japan. Bonds and other safe-haven assets such as the US dollar were out of favor as signs of a bottoming of global economies, albeit tentative, emboldened investors’ appetite for reflation trades like equities and commodities Incorporatedluding oil and precious metals. Source: CXO Advisory Group In addition to the major stock market indices rising for a third consecutive month, some of the other milestones achieved during the past week were the following: • The S&#38;P 500 Index rose by 5.3% in May for a three-month performance of +25.0% &#8211; the biggest three-month gain since August 1938. • The Dow Jones Industrial Index ]]></description>
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		<title>(EWH) Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (May 25 – 31, 2009)</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/31/ewh-words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-may-25-%e2%80%93-31-2009/7663</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/31/ewh-words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-may-25-%e2%80%93-31-2009/7663#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 May 2009 16:13:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=7663</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Government bonds dominated action on financial markets during the past holiday-shortened week, as angst about inflation and massive issuance propelled yields to six-month highs in the US, Europe and Japan. Bonds and other safe-haven assets such as the US dollar were out of favor as signs of a bottoming of global economies, albeit tentative, emboldened investors’ appetite for reflation trades like equities and commodities Incorporatedluding oil and precious metals. Source: CXO Advisory Group In addition to the major stock market indices rising for a third consecutive month, some of the other milestones achieved during the past week were the following: • The S&#38;P 500 Index rose by 5.3% in May for a three-month performance of +25.0% &#8211; the biggest three-month gain since August 1938. • The Dow Jones Industrial Index ]]></description>
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		<title>Credit Crisis Watch: Update – Improvement in Financial Stress Index</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/30/credit-crisis-watch-update-%e2%80%93-improvement-in-financial-stress-index/7658</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/30/credit-crisis-watch-update-%e2%80%93-improvement-in-financial-stress-index/7658#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 May 2009 23:29:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Basic Materials]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Specialty Chemicals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=7658</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I have often reported on the progress that has been made on the credit front and concluded as follows in my “Credit Crisis Review” of a few days ago: “Most indications are that the credit market tide has turned on the back of the massive reflation efforts orchestrated by central banks worldwide and that the credit system has started thawing. “However, although the convalescence process seems to be well on track, it still has a way to go before confidence in the world’s financial system returns to more ‘normal’ levels, liquidity starts to flow freely again, and the economic recovery can commence.” Further confirmation that the various central bank liquidity facilities and capital injections are having the desired effect of unclogging credit markets comes from Goldman Sachs’s Financial Stress Index ]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>Credit machine not yet fixed</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/28/credit-machine-not-yet-fixed/7443</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/28/credit-machine-not-yet-fixed/7443#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 May 2009 22:22:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=7443</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Although the rates at which banks lend to each other have eased considerably from their peaks, banks have cut back significantly on the amount of money they are actually lending. Source: Gluskin Sheff The fact that the money multiplier is breaking down can be seen from in the US Depository Institutions Aggregate Excess Reserves &#8211; which are zero in a normal credit environment &#8211; continuing to skyrocket far in excess of the amount that banks need to keep on deposit to meet their reserve requirements. The excess reserves now amount to a record $877 billion and reflect the uncertainty about banks’ balance sheets in view of the fact that the value of some assets is not known. US Aggregate Depository Institutions Excess Reserves Source: Fullermoney A peak in the excess ]]></description>
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		<title>Dollar’s slide hurting foreign investors</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/28/dollar%e2%80%99s-slide-hurting-foreign-investors/7507</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/28/dollar%e2%80%99s-slide-hurting-foreign-investors/7507#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 May 2009 22:20:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dollar]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=7507</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With the US dollar trading at a five-month low, spare a thought for non-US investors invested in US stocks and bonds. The graph below compares the performance of the US 10-year Treasury Note in US dollar terms (green line) with the same bonds from the viewpoint of a European investor (red line). (Although I am using the euro in this example, the same logic applies to most other non-US dollar currencies.) Since the peak of the US dollar against the euro on March 5, US investors have lost 2.6% on their Treasury investments, but euro investors are completely under water to the tune of -11.9%. The year-to-date numbers are down by 5.6% (US dollar) and 5.7% (euro) respectively. Source: StockCharts.com The next graph shows the S&#38;P 500 Index in both ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/28/dollar%e2%80%99s-slide-hurting-foreign-investors/7507/feed</wfw:commentRss>
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		<title>Goldman: Past the worst?</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/28/goldman-past-the-worst/7506</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/28/goldman-past-the-worst/7506#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 May 2009 22:18:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=7506</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The debate rages on regarding whether the global business cycle has started to stabilize, with most of the “green shoots” arguments based on softer data such as Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) appearing “less bad”. Although this is not the same as “good”, one should be aware of the fact that a bottoming process of the economic cycle has commenced. Importantly, different countries will experience dissimilar rates of recovery that, in turn, will impact asset allocation decisions. An interesting analysis by the Goldman Sachs Global Economics team suggests that every major economy has possibly already seen its worst rate of GDP decline, either in Q4 of last year or Q1 of this year (see graphs below). “Emerging markets are likely to see a return to trend growth about six months, on ]]></description>
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		<title>Prieur’s readings</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/20/prieur%e2%80%99s-readings/7164</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/20/prieur%e2%80%99s-readings/7164#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2009 19:49:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=7164</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This post provides links to some thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find of interest. • Anne Kates Smith (Kiplinger): Why three bears turned bullish, June 2009. Veteran analysts tell why they think stocks are heading up. • John Hussman (Hussman Funds): The destructive implications of the bailout &#8211; understanding equilibrium, May 18, 2009. In order to understand the impact of these interventions, you have to think in terms of equilibrium &#8211; recognizing that all securities that are issued must also be held by someone &#8211; and then follow the money. • Robert Shiller (Project Syndicate): Story time for the economy, May 16, 2009. Starting an economic recovery is like launching a new movie: nobody knows how people will react to it ]]></description>
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		<title>(OIS) Credit Crisis Watch: Thawing – noteworthy progress</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/20/ois-credit-crisis-watch-thawing-%e2%80%93-noteworthy-progress/7167</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/20/ois-credit-crisis-watch-thawing-%e2%80%93-noteworthy-progress/7167#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2009 19:46:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Basic Materials]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil and Gas Equipment and Services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil States International Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[OIS]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=7167</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Are the various central bank liquidity facilities and capital injections having the desired effect of unclogging credit markets and restoring confidence in the world’s financial system? This is precisely what the “Credit Crisis Watch” is all about &#8211; a review of a number of measures in order to ascertain to what extent the thawing of credit markets is taking place. First up is the LIBOR rate. This is the interest rate banks charge each other for one-month, three-month, six-month and one-year loans. LIBOR is an acronym for “London InterBank Offered Rate” and is the rate charged by London banks. This rate is then published and used as the benchmark for bank rates around the world. Interbank lending rates &#8211; the three-month dollar, euro and sterling LIBOR rates &#8211; declined to ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/20/ois-credit-crisis-watch-thawing-%e2%80%93-noteworthy-progress/7167/feed</wfw:commentRss>
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		<title>Milken Institute: Global conference – credit markets</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/13/milken-institute-global-conference-%e2%80%93-credit-markets/7018</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/13/milken-institute-global-conference-%e2%80%93-credit-markets/7018#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 May 2009 23:13:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=7018</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Milken Institute recently hosted a conference exploring the current crisis in the credit markets and a host of possible solutions to solve it. A summary of the discussion is provided in the paragraphs below, with the video clip at the end. “David Malpass of Encima Global opened with a basic rundown of the importance of credit as the underpinning of any healthy economy, stressing the importance of proper valuations and accurate ratings. Without well-functioning credit markets and proper credit allocation, he warned, expansion will be limited. “According to James Walker of Fir Tree Partners, the core of the crisis came from off-balance-sheet securitizations in mortgages; cars and credit cards; and securitization of securitization (i.e. CDOs). This securitization phenomenon was driven over the past 15 years by a combination of ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/13/milken-institute-global-conference-%e2%80%93-credit-markets/7018/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Technical talk: A tad extended</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/12/technical-talk-a-tad-extended/6949</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/12/technical-talk-a-tad-extended/6949#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 May 2009 02:20:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=6949</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The comments below were provided by Kevin Lane of Fusion IQ. The market is a bit extended here without any pullback; however, as our sentiment suggests (see charts below), liquidity remains favourable in terms of the intermediate to long term. So how one chooses to play this really is more about one’s trading/investment style. There are several options: firstly, those who are more flexible may choose to put on some short exposure by shorting some index ETFs (such as QQQQ or SPY) or buying some inverse leveraged index ETFs such as the QID (which has corrected from $71.00 down to $35.50 (at its recent low) without so much as even a bounce). Secondly, others may just choose to ride out what we believe may at present to be a normal, ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/12/technical-talk-a-tad-extended/6949/feed</wfw:commentRss>
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		<title>Rebecca Wilder’s economic updates (May 1 – 7): The economic decline abates</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/10/rebecca-wilder%e2%80%99s-economic-updates-may-1-%e2%80%93-7-the-economic-decline-abates/6852</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/10/rebecca-wilder%e2%80%99s-economic-updates-may-1-%e2%80%93-7-the-economic-decline-abates/6852#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2009 20:38:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=6852</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This post is a guest contribution by Rebecca Wilder*, author of the of the News N Economics blog. This week’s peek at the global economy shows some economic calm. The signs of hope remain mostly in the soft data &#8211; US and China purchasing managers surveys posting consecutive monthly growth &#8211; while the hard data &#8211; export growth, inflation, and unemployment &#8211; continue to deteriorate. Going forward, the story that “economies are declining less quickly” is gaining some momentum. And for some, a turning point may be on the horizon. GS (green shoot): Trend in China’s purchasing manager survey probably saw a cyclical low Source data courtesy of Sinolize.com The chart illustrates China’s manufacturing (MPMI) and non-manufacturing (NPMI) indices through April 2009. The manufacturing index marked its fifth consecutive month ]]></description>
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		<title>James Montier – Suckers’ rally or real deal?</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/10/james-montier-%e2%80%93-suckers%e2%80%99-rally-or-real-deal/6853</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/10/james-montier-%e2%80%93-suckers%e2%80%99-rally-or-real-deal/6853#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2009 20:37:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=6853</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The debate rages on: Is this a suckers’ rally or a new bull market? James Montier, the highly respected co-chief strategist of SocGen has weighed in on the subject in his latest Mind Matters investment newsletter. The paragraphs below have been republished from a post by Paul Murphy on the FT Alphaville blog. The question [whether this is a suckers’ rally or a new bull market] is on quite a few lips right now. Montier says he doesn’t have a clue. So he’s buying insurance &#8211; to protect on the downside. From the strategist’s latest missive to clients: “This strategy paid dividends in Japan which was characterised by explosive rallies (driven by the economic recovery) and the horrifying slumps as the recovery failed. Two methods of insurance stand out. Either ]]></description>
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		<title>(XLF) Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (May 4 – 10, 2009)</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/10/xlf-words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-may-4-%e2%80%93-10-2009/6854</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/10/xlf-words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-may-4-%e2%80%93-10-2009/6854#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2009 20:37:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[ETF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumer Discretionary SPDR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EDV]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Select Sector SPDR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Health Care Select Sector SPDR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IGW]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Industrial Select Sector SPDR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iShares S&P North Amer Tech-Semicondctrs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[KBE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[KBW Bank ETF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Materials Select Sector SPDR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PMI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PMI Group Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PowerShares FTSE RAFI Financials]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PRFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rydex S&P Equal Weight Financials]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RYF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SEF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Short Financials ProShares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Utilities Select Sector SPDR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vanguard Extended Dur Tre Idx ETF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[XLB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[XLF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[XLI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[XLP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[XLU]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[XLV]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[XLY]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=6854</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[One of the definitions of “stress” offered by the Merriam-Webster dictionary is “bodily or mental tension resulting from factors that tend to alter an existent equilibrium”. Well, any bodily or mental tension investors might have been suffering from as a result of financial factors were shrugged off on Thursday with the announcement by US regulators that ten of the nation’s largest banks had to add a total of “only” $74.6 billion in equity following the completion of stress tests. However, whether this will indeed restore the equilibrium remains to be seen. Source: Walt Handelsman The diagram below, courtesy of the Financial Times, summarizes the stress test results in a nutshell. Click here or on the image below for a larger graphic. Source: Financial Times As investors welcomed the less-than-feared stress-test ]]></description>
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		<title>The $33,000,000,000,000 question</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/09/the-33000000000000-question/6846</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/09/the-33000000000000-question/6846#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 May 2009 23:36:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=6846</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This post is a guest contribution by Niels Jensen*, chief executive partner of London-based Absolute Return Partners. Is the crisis really over? Commercial paper spreads have come down dramatically. Libor rates are (hmm &#8211; almost) back to normal. Even high yield spreads are narrowing. It certainly appears as if the credit crisis is well and truly over or, at the very least, the light which most of us think we can see at the end of the tunnel is no longer that of an oncoming freight train. No wonder equities are currently enjoying one of their best spells ever. And while equities continue to go up and up, most of us are left scratching our heads. Is this the real thing or will it go down in history as ‘just’ ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/05/09/the-33000000000000-question/6846/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Roubini Global Economics: 2009 Global Economic Outlook</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/04/29/roubini-global-economics-2009-global-economic-outlook/6170</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/04/29/roubini-global-economics-2009-global-economic-outlook/6170#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Apr 2009 20:33:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=6170</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By RGE Monitor Today we present some of the main conclusions of the recently released update to the RGE 2009 Global Economic Outlook. The global economy is in the middle of a synchronized contraction that will push global growth into negative territory in 2009 for the first time in decades. This will be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and the worst global economic downturn in decades. Global trade volumes face their sharpest contractions of the postwar era &#8211; trade is expected to contract 12% in 2009 due to the severe and prolonged global demand slump, excess capacity across supply chains and the continued crunch in trade finance. Many analysts and commentators are pointing out that the second derivative of economic activity is turning positive (i.e. economies are ]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Economic rate of decline slowing down?</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/04/22/economic-rate-of-decline-slowing-down/5894</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/04/22/economic-rate-of-decline-slowing-down/5894#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Apr 2009 22:36:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=5894</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[“Green shoots”, “glimmer of hope” and “light at the end of the tunnel” are three phrases economists have recently started bandying around, referring to a slowing in the deterioration of a number of economic variables, i.e. that the rate of global economic deterioration is bottoming out. This is also referred to as the so-called second derivative of growth turning positive; continuing economic contraction is the first, negative, derivative. These claims were validated by Goldman Sachs’s Diffusion Index (a composite of 34 economic data points from across the globe) that increased to above 50 in February and March, indicating improvement. The results of two surveys released over the past two days also seem to back up the “green shoots” claims. Firstly, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany, considering the ]]></description>
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		<title>(BAC) Stock performance based on short interest</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/04/20/bac-stock-performance-based-on-short-interest/5751</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/04/20/bac-stock-performance-based-on-short-interest/5751#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Apr 2009 20:16:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Money Center Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BAC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank of America Corporation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[C]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Citigroup Inc.]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=5751</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Bespoke brought an interesting research study on short positions to our attention earlier this week, as reported below. “Since the S&#38;P 500 bottomed on March 9, the average stock in the index has rallied by 41.2%. However, as Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), and other names have shown, many companies have done considerably better, with gains of over 100%. “One factor which has been a key driver of stock performance off the lows has been a stock’s short interest as a percentage of float. In the chart below, we have grouped the stocks of the S&#38;P 500 into deciles based on their short interest as of the end of February (which was the most recent available data as of the March lows). We then calculated the average return of ]]></description>
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		<title>Roubini Global Economics: Banks in the spotlight</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/04/16/roubini-global-economics-banks-in-the-spotlight/5623</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/04/16/roubini-global-economics-banks-in-the-spotlight/5623#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Apr 2009 21:44:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=5623</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By RGE Monitor According to preliminary results leaked to the New York Times, all 19 banks with assets above $100 billion that are subject to the Treasury’s “stress test” are bound to pass the test. The official results are due by the end of April but the upbeat mood in the banking sector was already reflected in the 30% stock price rally in the run up to the Q1 earnings season. The major three commercial banks had already noted that they were profitable in the first two months of the year, and Wells Fargo announced that it expects to post a record net income of $3 billion when it reports results on April 22 (with combined net charge-offs of $3.3 billion for both Wells and Wachovia from $6.1 billion in ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/04/16/roubini-global-economics-banks-in-the-spotlight/5623/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Technical talk: Stocks nearing short-term resistance</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/03/26/technical-talk-stocks-nearing-short-term-resistance/4673</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/03/26/technical-talk-stocks-nearing-short-term-resistance/4673#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2009 18:24:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=4673</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The comments below were provided by Kevin Lane of Fusion IQ. As we have said before, it is not the points gained or lost that matter, but rather the conviction behind the move. Monday’s internals did not disappoint, with the NASDAQ and NYSE both scoring up to down volume ratios and advancer to decliner ratios that were superbullish. This rally confirms the comments we made on March 10 and then again on March 18. Excerpt from FusionIQ comments on March 10: “Market internals (i.e. the number of advancers to decliners and up volume to down volume) on today’s advance were the most bullish internal readings seen since the move off the 2002 lows … ” We also added: … “That said, we believe today’s rally is the start of a ]]></description>
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		<title>Stock markets – keep an eye on confidence measures</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/03/26/stock-markets-%e2%80%93-keep-an-eye-on-confidence-measures/4737</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/03/26/stock-markets-%e2%80%93-keep-an-eye-on-confidence-measures/4737#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2009 18:18:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=4737</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It is important that confidence be restored for the recent stock market gains to be more enduring. A few comments regarding this issue are highlighted in this post. As shown in Sunday’s “Words from the Wise” review, there is a strong historical relationship between the US Consumer Confidence Index and the 12-month change in the S&#38;P 500 Index. One needs to take a view on the direction of consumer confidence, but should it for argument’s sake pick up from 30 to 40 by the end of June, the relationship indicates a S&#38;P 500 decline of 30-35% in year-ago terms. Using end-of-quarter prices, this means an Index at between 832 and 896 by mid-year. Source: Plexus Asset Management (based on data from I-Net Bridge) Interestingly, a report from Franklin Templeton Investments ]]></description>
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		<title>Video-o-rama: Fed employs nuclear option</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/03/23/video-o-rama-fed-employs-nuclear-option/4575</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/03/23/video-o-rama-fed-employs-nuclear-option/4575#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Mar 2009 16:57:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=4575</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Financial markets were dominated this week by the announcement by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to buy as much as $300 billion of long-term Treasuries and acquire an additional $750 billion of mortgage-backed securities. On the news, the US dollar plunged, the euro surged, Treasury yields nose-dived, gold bullion exploded, and stocks, oil and commodities gained handsomely. What an announcement, what a week! A few of the more interesting video clips that attracted my attention are shared below. In addition to Bill Gross stating that the Fed’s purchases are still not enough, AIG remained in the news as payment of bonuses to its executives from bailout money stirred up emotions. This culminated in the House passing a bill to tax TARP bonuses by 90%. As far as the stock markets are ]]></description>
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		<title>Mass hysteria over AIG obscures simple truths</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/03/23/mass-hysteria-over-aig-obscures-simple-truths/4579</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/03/23/mass-hysteria-over-aig-obscures-simple-truths/4579#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Mar 2009 16:48:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=4579</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is a guest contribution by Michael Lewis*. Last September the U.S. government began to dole out the first of $173 billion to American International Group. A big chunk of it passed right through to banks that had bought insurance from AIG against mortgage and corporate defaults — foreign banks such as Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale but also some domestic ones, such as Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. U.S. government officials then went to great lengths to disguise from the public exactly what they had done, and why, going so far as to declare the ultimate list of recipients of taxpayer funds off limits to the taxpayer. To its immense credit, the media – or, rather, a handful of diligent reporters, the New York Times’ Gretchen Morgenson chief ]]></description>
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		<title>(C) Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (March 9 – 15, 2009)</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/03/15/c-words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-march-9-%e2%80%93-15-2009/4356</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/03/15/c-words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-march-9-%e2%80%93-15-2009/4356#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Mar 2009 23:30:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Money Center Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BAC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank of America Corporation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[C]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Citigroup Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets Telecommunica]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ETF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Select Sector SPDR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IAT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iShares Dow Jones US Regional Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iShares Russell 2000 Index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IWM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[JPM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[JPMorgan Chase & Co]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SPDR S&P Homebuilders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[XHB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[XLF]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=4356</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Global stock markets surged over the past four days as investors adopted a more positive view of the prospects for the beleaguered financial sector and shrugged aside gloom about the economy. Citigroup (C) on Tuesday said it had turned a profit from operations for January and February (BUT did not mention credit losses, toxic paper, derivatives, etc.). JPMorgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) later made similar comments. A positive shift in investor sentiment, together with the possibility of the suspension of mark-to-market accounting and the reinstitution of the uptick rule, resulted in the best week for equities since November. Arriving in time for my 54th birthday today, the reversal of fortune is illustrated by the strong gains of the MSCI World Index (+9.8%) and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index ]]></description>
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		<title>(ETF) Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (March 2 – 8, 2009)</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/03/09/etf-words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-march-2-%e2%80%93-8-2009/4110</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/03/09/etf-words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-march-2-%e2%80%93-8-2009/4110#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Mar 2009 22:48:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Closed-End Fund - Foreign]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AAII]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alabama Aircraft Industries I]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets Telecommunica]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ETF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EWT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iShares MSCI Taiwan Index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MYY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PMI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PMI Group Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RWM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SEF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Short Financials ProShares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Short MidCap400 ProShares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Short Russell2000 ProShares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States Oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USO]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=4110</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[“Down, down, deeper and down”. So goes the chorus of a Status Quo song, but it is eerily starting to sound like the stock markets’ anthem. Another week and another plunge of equities on fears about the intensity of the global recession and renewed skepticism regarding the beleaguered financial sector. And, yet again, flight-to-safety trades such as the US dollar (at a three-year high) and government bonds took center stage. Our family yesterday celebrated my son’s eighth birthday. While the kids were amusing themselves in pirate garb, the parents engaged in a more subdued deliberation about the exhausting stream of ugly news on the financial front. Interestingly, never in a career of 26 years have I had so many people sympathizing with my “day job” as investment manager. Will the ]]></description>
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		<title>(C) Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (Feb 23 – Mar 1, 2009)</title>
		<link>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/03/02/c-words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-feb-23-%e2%80%93-mar-1-2009/3825</link>
		<comments>http://www.stockbloghub.com/2009/03/02/c-words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-feb-23-%e2%80%93-mar-1-2009/3825#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Mar 2009 22:20:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>prieur</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Money Center Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[C]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Citigroup Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DOG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets Telecommunica]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ETF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GLD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iShares Silver Trust]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PSQ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SH]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Short Dow30 ProShares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Short QQQ ProShares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Short S&P500 ProShares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SLV]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SPDR Gold Shares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States Oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USO]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stockbloghub.com/?p=3825</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Battle-weary investors remained skeptical of a banking quick fix and endured more grim economic fodder during the past week, causing US stocks to hit their lowest level since 1997. After the worst January (-8.8%) on record, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed February (-11.7%) in the third worst position, after 1933 (-15.6%) and 1920 (-12.5%). As if the recent declines are not bad enough, Chart of the Day points out that in inflation-adjusted terms the Dow has gained only 55% since its 1929 peak and a mere 10% since the 1966 high. Global stock markets were generally down on the week as summarized by the week’s movements of the MSCI Global Index (-2.8%, YTD -18.4%) and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (-0.6%, YTD -11.9%). In US dollar terms the Russian ]]></description>
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