(GG) Goldcorp Quarterly Earnings Report Meets Consensus

Goldcorp Inc.’s (GG) reported net earnings were $489 million in the second quarter of 2011 compared with $524 million in the second quarter of 2010. Adjusted net earnings were $420 million, or 52 cents per share compared with $199 million or 27 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. Results were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Revenue

In the second quarter of 2011, revenues increased 62% year over year to $1.3 billion, on gold sales of 606,400 ounces.

Record realized gold prices and Goldcorp’s strong production boosted revenues. The average realized gold price for the quarter rose 25% to $1,516 an ounce. Cash costs totaled $185 per ounce on a by-product basis and $553 per ounce on a co-product basis.

Mining Update

Mexico: At the Penasquito mine, gold and silver production was 58,400 and 4,602,300 ounces, respectively, for the second quarter of 2011. Lead and zinc production in the reported quarter totaled 38.5 million pounds and 66.5 million pounds, respectively. Second-quarter gold production from sulphide ore increased 6% over the first quarter of 2011 to 43,100 ounces.

Cash costs for the second quarter of 2011 increased 46% year over year to a negative $801 per ounce from $687 per ounce driven by lower by-product credits, a stronger Mexican peso and higher operating costs.

At Los Filos, gold production was a record of 83,500 ounces at total cash costs of $438 per ounce. Construction of the fourth stage of the heap leach pad was completed during the quarter as scheduled. In addition, an increase of 15% throughput capacity at the processing facility was completed, which is expected to provide additional solution processing capacity during the upcoming rainy season.

The 2011 exploration program continues to progress with the objective of proving the extension of the Los Filos deposit toward the 4P area and El Bermejal to the south. Results to date are positive in proving both extensions.

Canada: At the Red Lake Mine, gold production was strong at 154,900 ounces at total cash costs of $352 per ounce. Exploration drilling continued throughout the quarter from the 4199 ramp and the interconnection drift to extend the High Grade Zone below the 52 level with positive results. Additionally, a significant amount of exploration and development is continuing to bring the Upper Red Lake Complex, the Far East Zone and the Footwall Zones into sustained production, both as alternate sources of ore and to complement the ‘fill the mills’ program.

At Porcupine in Ontario, gold production during the second quarter totaled 62,300 ounces at a total cash cost of $710 per ounce.  The Hoyle Pond Deep project advanced during the second quarter with continued work on lateral development underground, finishing major excavation for the hoist rooms and shaft access. Additionally, foundations were laid for the surface hoist and a pilot raise was completed to align the shaft in preparation for sinking operations later in 2011. The key component of the construction involves a new 5.5 metre diameter deep winze (shaft) commencing on the 355 metre level and extending to a total depth of 2,200 metres below surface.

Gold production at Musselwhite during the second quarter totaled 58,800 ounces at a total cash cost of $767 per ounce. Exploration continued to focus on the surface and underground extension of the Lynx Zone.  The results from this drilling activity will be used to support engineering work and confirm economics of a long term ore handling solution.  The underground program has extended the Lynx resource 125 metres north and 50 metres south of the 2010 Reserve boundary, with results consistent with earlier drilling.

Guatemala: At Marlin in Guatemala, gold production was 78,900 ounces at a total cash cost of negative $368 per ounce. Silver production was 1,896,400 ounces.

Financial Position

At the end of June 30, 2011, cash and cash equivalents was $1,378 million versus $556 million at the end of December 31, 2010.

In the second quarter of 2011, operating cash flow was $330 million versus $383 million in the year-ago quarter.

Project Pipeline

PuebloViejo: Construction of Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic is now more than 70% complete. A major rainfall that occurred in May requires remediation of damage to the partially constructed starter tailings dam facility and as a result, the first production is now anticipated in mid-2012, subject to the receipt of new tailings permit approvals. The unanticipated remediation work and impact on the schedule has resulted in mine construction capital increasing to $3.6–$3.8 billion (100%), or $1.4–$1.5 billion (Goldcorp’s 40% share) of which about 75% had been committed at the end of the second quarter. Goldcorp’s share of annual gold production in the first full five years of operation is expected to average 415,000–450,000 ounces at total cash costs of between $275 and $300 per ounce.

As part of a longer term optimized power solution for Pueblo Viejo, a plan is being advanced to build a dual fueled power plant at an estimated incremental capital cost of about $0.3 billion (100% basis) or $0.12 billion (Goldcorp’s 40% share). This is expected to commence operations utilizing heavy fuel oil (HFO) power, having the ability to subsequently convert to cheaper liquid natural gas (LNG). The new plant is expected to provide lower cost and long-term power to the project.

Cerro Negro: In the quarter, the Eureka decline continued to advance, reaching a length of 1,215 metres, out of a 4,000 metre total.  During the second quarter, the underground development for the first vertical vent raise was completed along with access road upgrades, geotechnical evaluations of the plant and tailings areas, camp expansion and power line design and routing studies.  Exploration drilling ramped up dramatically in the second quarter of 2011 with a total of 39,823 metres of core produced compared with 8,772 metres drilled during the first quarter. By the end of the second quarter, there were eight surface drills operating and two additional drill rigs are expected to be added in the second half of 2011. The immediate focus of drilling is on the expansion of the Mariana Central, Mariana Norte and San Marcos veins, all of which remain open along strike. Reserve additions from these three veins have the potential to augment the near-term production profile at Cerro Negro.

Eleonore project: At the project in Quebec, infill surface diamond drilling continued with a total of 25 kilometers completed for the year. An update to the geological model has been initiated, with completion expected in the fourth quarter of 2011.  An additional 10 kilometres of drilling is scheduled and will focus on the central portion of the ore body to upgrade inferred mineral resources on the northern portion of the deposit, where high grade results have been previously intersected, showing potential for additional mineral resources. Construction of the exploration ramp began on April 9, 2011 and has now advanced 180 metres in length and is progressing toward the 650-meter level.  The ramp will provide drilling locations along the ore body to help better define the resource.  On June 30, 2011, the exploration shaft reached a depth of 351 metres and remains on schedule with completion targeted for the second quarter of 2012.

The project remains on track to receive the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) permit in the third quarter of 2011, which will allow construction to commence.

Cochenour: Work continued on the old Cochenour shaft and the first phase of widening began on July 2nd. On surface, the shaft sinking winch foundation was poured.  The hoist complex architectural and mechanical contractors mobilized to site and began installation.  The Cochenour Red Lake Haulage Drift continued to advance and at the end of the second quarter was 29% complete.  Surface exploration drilling continued and in addition to the four drills working on delineating and expanding the resource at Cochenour, two drills have been mobilized into the Cochenour Red Lake Haulage Drift to begin testing the potential of this underexplored area.

Camino Rojo: Exploration and development work continued at Camino Rojo, the advanced-stage satellite exploration project near Penasquito. Drilling continued with a total of 15,335 metres drilled, including six validation core holes in the Represa resource, twenty-two resource expansion and infill core holes, ten condemnation holes in anticipation of site facilities, and fifty shallow RAB-style holes.    Trenching and channel sampling were completed to define bulk samples for metallurgical column tests.  At Noche Buena, another advanced-stage district project near Peñasquito, exploration drilling commenced during the quarter with three drills working to define high grade zones within the low grade deposit. Initial results show structurally controlled higher grade mineralization trends have been identified with follow-up drilling planned to in-fill along these trends.

El Morro: At the El Morro project, approval of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) was received in March 2011. Studies continue to evaluate the optimum configuration of the plant and facilities including an assessment of any resulting impacts to costs and schedule.  An update to the feasibility study is on track to be completed in the third quarter and any changes will be incorporated into that study.  An existing access road was extended by 18 kilometres to the property. This access is being used to provide consumables and equipment for the condemnation drilling activities, which began on site in June.

Outlook

For 2011, total gold production at Peñasquito is now expected to be 250,000 ounces compared with the previous guidance of 350,000 ounces.

At the Pueblo Viejo project in the Dominican Republic, 60% owner and joint venture operator Barrick announced in May significant damage to the starter dam at the tailings facility due to a major rainfall event, resulting in a delay in first gold production until mid-year 2012.   Goldcorp is forecasting no gold production from Pueblo Viejo in 2011 versus previous expectations of 50,000 ounces.

On 14 July, the company announced that forest fires in northwest Ontario had affected operations at Musselwhite mine.  The mine is expected to be back to regular operation within the next several days and the Company recognizes the efforts of mine personnel and the provincial firefighters across Canada, who have managed a very challenging situation amid extreme conditions.

Taken together, these factors are expected to result in a reduction in 2011 gold production to between 2.50 million and 2.55 million ounces compared with the previous guidance between 2.65 million and 2.75 million ounces.  Cash costs are now expected to be between $180 and $220 per ounce of gold on a by-product basis, compared with the previous guidance of between $280 and $320 per ounce. Due to lower production in Peñasquito, co-product cash costs for the year are now anticipated to be between $500 and $550 per ounce versus between $475 and $500 per ounce previously.

Ongoing exploration success at the Company’s mines and projects has resulted in a $50 million increase in the 2011 exploration budget, to $225 million. Those assets receiving significant increases include an additional $10 million each at Cerro Negro and Porcupine. The largest potential increase is at El Morro, where the receipt of permits would enable the exploration of regional targets with strong potential upside. Red Lake and Los Filos will also receive meaningful increases and both remaining well-positioned to replace or increase gold reserves in 2011.

The company competes with Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) and Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM).

We maintain our Neutral recommendation on Goldcorp. Currently, it holds a Zacks #3 Rank (Hold) on the stock.

BARRICK GOLD CP (ABX): Free Stock Analysis Report

GOLDCORP INC (GG): Free Stock Analysis Report

NEWMONT MINING (NEM): Free Stock Analysis Report

Zacks Investment Research

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