AAII Sentiment Survey: Bearish Sentiment at a 4-Week High

January 21st, 2010

Bearish sentiment jumped by nearly eight percentage points in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Nearly 35% of individual investors said they expect the markets to trend lower over the next six months, the highest level in four weeks. The historical average for bearish sentiment is 30%.

Though the rise in bearish sentiment is notable, it should be considered within the context of market conditions. The major indexes declined twice over the over the past three trading days.

Furthermore, bullish sentiment stayed above its historical average for the ninth time out of the past 10 weeks. The survey results show 40% of individual investors expect the markets to rise over the next six months. Bullish sentiment did fall, however, coming in seven percentage points lower than a week ago.

Neutral sentiment was down fractionally to 25.3%.

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:

Bullish: 40.0%, -7.4 percentage points
Neutral: 25.3%, -0.4 percentage points
Bearish: 34.7%, +7.8 percentage points

Long-Term Averages:

Bullish: 39%
Neutral: 31%
Bearish: 30%

The survey and its results are available on-line.

Charles Rotblut, CFA
Vice President and AAII Journal Editor
American Association of Individual Investors
P: (312) 676-4337
F: (312) 676-4387
crotblut@aaii.com

http://www.aaii.com

http://twitter.com/charlesrotblut

More on this topic (What's this?)
AAII Sentiment Survey Results for 1-28-10 (Chain Bridge Investing, 1/29/10)
Technical Talk: Individuals have below-average allocation to equities (Investment Postcards from Cape Town, 11/17/09)
The AAII Stock Screens (Scott's Investments, 8/26/09)
Technical Talk: Individuals have below-average allocation to equities (GreenLightAdvisor Views, 11/17/09)
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