Archive for prieur
I am an investment professional with 26 years' experience in investment research and portfolio management. More than 1 200 of my articles on investment-related topics have been published in various regular newspaper, journal and Internet columns (including my blog, Investment Postcards from Cape Town: www.investmentpostcards.com). I have also published a book, Financial Basics: Investment. I am Chairman and principal shareholder of South African-based Plexus Asset Management, which I founded in 1995. The group conducts investment management, investment consulting, private equity and real estate activities in South Africa and other African countries. I am 53 years old and live with my wife, television producer and presenter Isabel Verwey, and two children in Cape Town, South Africa. My leisure activities include long-distance running, traveling, reading, motor-cycling and scripophily.
Donald Coxe – Investment Recommendations (November 2008)
Donald Coxe’s monthly investment report, entitled “Basic Points” (subtitled “Capitalism Faces Its Greatest Challenge” for the November 2008 edition), has just been published. He is Global Portfolio strategist of BMO Financial Group and widely followed for his “big...
20Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedVideo-o-rama: Jim Rogers on the lie of the land
John Authers, investment editor of FT, has just conducted a wide-ranging four-part video interview with Jim Rogers, legendary investor and author. In Part 1 Rogers gives his outlook for the US dollar and what new financial architecture may evolve post-crisis. In Part 2 Rogers...
18Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedDEBT – No Longer a 4-letter Word?
This post is a guest contribution by Bennet Sedacca*, President of Atlantic Advisors Asset Management. “The national budget must be balanced. The public debt must be reduced. The arrogance of the authorities must be moderated and controlled. Payments to foreign governments...
18Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedIs stock market rally “real”?
What a wild day on stock markets yesterday! At one stage the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged to below 8,000, but staged a spectacular rally late in the session to close 553 points (6.6%) up on the day. The S&P 500 Index moved in tandem to finish the day 59 points (6.9%)...
18Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | Continued(GM) Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (November 10 – 16, 2008)
The Oxford Dictionary defines “volatility” as “liable to change rapidly and unpredictably, especially for the worse”. It’s not as if investors do not know this by now, as global stock markets were again subjected to extreme fluctuations during the past week. The...
16Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedStock Markets: Which Way José?
The list of well-known names identifying value on the US stock market at current levels is growing by the day and includes the likes of Jeremy Grantham (GMO – “Careful buying is justified”), Warren Buffett (“Buy America. I am”), John Hussman (Hussman Funds – “Why...
14Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedI.O.U.S.A.: The Condensed Version
By now you may have heard about the acclaimed documentary I.O.U.S.A., a film that examines the rapidly growing US national debt and its consequences for the country and its citizens. The film has been a huge hit, receiving mostly pretty good reviews. The 30-minute version of...
14Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedHow low, how bad, how long?
A fair bit of deliberation has taken place on this site regarding stock market valuations, and specifically what is in store for the “E” component of PE multiples. In order to cast light on this matter and to incorporate insightful research into the valuation debate, I have...
12Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedLiving on a prayer
This post is a guest contribution by Bennet Sedacca*, President of Atlantic Advisors Asset Management. It is often said that “hope is a poor roadmap to success”. Hoping is as useful in investing as it is in nearly every other activity that I can think of. I must admit that...
12Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedGlobal stock markets show improving valuations
A study of the dividend yields and price-earnings multiples of a list of 100 global stock markets makes for interesting reading. With the sharp decline in stock markets over the past few months, valuation levels have obviously improved markedly. This is illustrated by the fact...
12Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedThe Wisdom of Great Investors
Periods of extreme volatility and uncertainty in the financial markets often result in investors making decisions detrimental to building long-term wealth. It is at times like these that it makes sense to reflect on the principles that have stood some of the world’s greatest...
12Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | Continued(GM) Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (November 3 – 9, 2008)
Welcome to Wall Street, Barack Obama. His victory signaled a change in US political direction, but the biggest election day rally ever – a surge of 4.1% in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday – was quickly overshadowed by the grim realities of the worsening economic and earnings...
9Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedNavigating OBAMArkets
The stock market yesterday did not offer President-elect Barrack Obama as warm a welcome as he would have liked. According to Bespoke, the Dow Jones Industrial Index’s decline of 5.1% was its worst post Presidential election day decline in history. As shown in the table below,...
6Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedSorry Obama, Wall Street doesn’t care
This post is a guest contribution by Paul Kedrosky*, market commentator and venture capitalist who also blogs about financial matters of the day on the Infectious Greed site. Honestly? Wall Street doesn’t care. Yes, I know that’s not the answer anyone wants. People want to...
6Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedThe challenges facing Obama
The following paragraphs come from the latest newsletter by Nouriel Roubini’s RGE Monitor. The article provides an insightful look at the economic and other challenges facing the US’s 44th President. The 2008 US Presidential election was historic itself owing to the candidates’...
6Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedWhen the chickens come home to roost
This post is a guest contribution by Niels Jensen*, chief executive partner of London-based Absolute Return Partners. My big worry at the moment is what is happening to (some) hedge funds. Clearly, 2008 has been to hedge fund investors what 1992 was to Queen Elizabeth II –...
5Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedStock market performance round-up: torrid October ends with a bang
A great deal has been said about stock markets’ performances during October, and specifically about the reversal of fortune during the last week of the month. (I covered this topic extensively in yesterday’s “Words from the Wise” post.) For the sake of completeness I...
4Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedWords from the (investment) wise for the week that was (Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2008)
October lived up to its reputation as being a torrid month. The following extraordinary performances tell the story: • MSCI Word Index: -19.1% (largest monthly decline since the Index started in 1969, beating October 1987’s -17.1%) • MSCI Emerging Markets Index: -27.1%...
2Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedWhy the dollar surge won’t last
This post is a guest contribution by Paul Kedrosky*, friend and venture capitalist who also blogs about what shakes and stirs in the financial world on the Infectious Greed site. That same broken dollar is now king. It won’t last. Think of it as a temporary scarcity of life...
2Nov2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedGlobal Stock Markets: Halloween Relief or More?
I will be covering a global stock market performance round-up after the month end, but thought it would make for interesting reading to briefly review the action of the past three days. The numbers speak for themselves, showing the MSCI World Index and the MSCI Emerging Markets...
31Oct2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedRoubini: World economy faced by stag-deflation
The following paragraphs come from the latest newsletter by Nouriel Roubini’s RGE Monitor. The article provides a thought-provoking summary of the key issues facing the global economy. “The financial wildfire has turned around the stagflationary trends seen earlier this year...
31Oct2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedBennet Sedacca: Welcome to the Jungle
This post is a guest contribution by Bennet Sedacca*, President of Atlantic Advisors Asset Management. Last December, I wrote a piece, entitled “I Don’t Know”, detailing what I expected for the financial markets in 2008. I usually have a fairly strong opinion, but last...
31Oct2008 | prieur | 0 comments | Continued(PBS) Video-o-rama: Is the worst of the credit crisis over?
A heavy batch of interesting video clips has appeared over the past few days as pundits were debating whether the worst of the credit crisis was over and what to make of the stock market’s bounce. I am again pre-empting the customary Sunday edition of the “Words from the...
31Oct2008 | prieur | 0 comments | Continued(BIDU) Market veterans search for value
This post is a guest contribution by David Shvartsman who blogs about big-picture trends on the Finance Trends Matter site. Today’s post focuses on areas of investment that are starting to look attractive to seasoned investors. Some of the well-regarded market veterans...
30Oct2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedUS rate cut imminent
Just a quick note to share a graph showing the US Fed funds target rate (red line), together with the actual effective rate (blue line). In my opinion, it will not come as a surprise to see the FOMC reducing rates by between 50 and 75 basis points very soon, possible still...
28Oct2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedAlbert Edwards: Turning More Bullish
One of the most popular reports ever published on my blog site was that of Albert Edwards and James Montier of Société Générale, entitled “Market Fundamentals are Appalling” (July 5, 2008). At the time they said: “The recession, which has barely begun, is more likely...
28Oct2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedVideo-o-rama: Financial markets in turmoil
So much has happened in the financial markets lately, prompting me to pre-empt the customary Sunday edition of the “Words from the Wise” post by sharing with you a number of video clips that have attracted my attention over the past few days. My apologies to those with equipment...
28Oct2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedJeremy Grantham: Careful Buying is Justified
In July this year perennial bear Jeremy Grantham, chairman of Boston-based GMO, said: “Events must now be disturbing to everyone, and I for one am officially scared!” In terms of strategy, he summarized his view with what he believed should be investors’ motto: “Don’t...
28Oct2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedLessons from 1929 stock market crash
Although the present financial meltdown is quite different from that of 1929, it serves a useful purpose to revisit the 1929 stock market crash to at least pick up on the investment lessons offered by that situation. This is especially true as financial memory only seems to last...
28Oct2008 | prieur | 0 comments | ContinuedEverything You Need to Know About the Financial Crisis
This post is a guest contribution by Doug Diamond* and Anil Kashyap** of the University of Chicago’s Graduate School of Business. 1) Why has the stock market been so erratic for the last two weeks? The stock market’s value depends on the future profitability of firms. In...
28Oct2008 | prieur | 0 comments | Continued